Closed out AUD.USD short

Closed out the AUD.USD short @ 1.0552 for a loss of -102 pips.

Monday 8/22 (late night update)

I am still short AUD.USD from 1.0450 and have been watching the pair chop around by 50 pips on both sides for the past week. One negative development for the trade has been, while risk has sold off considerably, AUD.USD has held firm. This might be a sign of underlying strength relative to other risks.

We have also formed a very big wedge on the hourly and it could break either way. Last week I was thinking about doubling up the size of the trade, but considering that August has been a bad month for me, I prefer to trade small the rest of the month. So I'll stay put for now. I'll be watching the pair closely to see what side of the wedge it breaks out from. If it breaks to the upside, I might wait for first pull back and close out position.



Open trades:
AUD.USD   Short 1.0450   Target .9950 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 1.0650

Thursday 8/18

Shorting AUD.USD again @ 1.0450
Target .9950
Stop 1.0650

I got stopped out of AUD.USD yesterday, but the market is finally turning around. I am jumping back in with half the size of the yesterday's position. Once the market gets really moving, I might add more.

Wed 8/17

Got stopped out of the AUD.USD short position @ 1.0550 for a loss of -120 pips.

Tuesday 8/16/2011 - Short AUD.USD

Just shorted AUD.USD @ 1.0430
Target .9950
Stop 1.0550








Risk has been rallying since the markets finally bottomed on 8/9. Most instruments have reached the 50% fib of the recent leg down. Market needs to go back to the lows to re-test it before rallying further, and that’s what I am expecting.

I was contemplating between shorting CL, ES or AUD.USD, and finally settled down with AUD.USD, because CL has burned me too many times recently and managing stops with it is too stressful. I am getting tired of playing CL with $3-4 dollar stops and still getting burned. I didn’t want to play ES, because it moves too slowly. AUD.USD provides a compromise between the two, it’s not as crazy as CL but it makes faster moves than ES, so I am going with AUD.USD.

I’ll readjust target if it becomes necessary, but will not move stop up. I need to start being more disciplined with my stops.

Wednesday 8/10

Lowered target on USD.CAD from .9750 to .9710. Next support line is around .9630, but I don't think it can get there today. I'll be happy to close out the trade today with profit and leave some money on the table, instead of risking the lost of profit. I'll check back again in a few hours when NY opens and will re-adjust if necessary.


Open trades:
USD.CAD   Short .9939   Target .9710  Stop .9939



UPDATE 9:00 AM
How frustrating. I just got stopped out of the USD.CAD trade @ .9939 for break-even.

8/9 Tuesday Night

USD.CAD update:

The position is working out well. As expected, risk assets are starting to stabilize and USD.CAD position is well into profit. It actually got 18 pips away from my .9750 target earlier today, but then it quickly bounced off of 38% fib level. I set my original exit to .9750 because .9740 was the 8/5 low, so I figured we would at least drop to that level. But now I am thinking USD.CAD might make another run for the 38% fib level support and break it this time. There is no support bellow that until the .9630 areas. So it might be smarter for me to either exit right now or lower exit to next support to capture maximum possible profit. I am going to see how the dollar behaves half way through the London session before I make a decision. For now, I'll leave things as is, but I have lowered my stop to break-even.




Open trades:
USD.CAD   Short .9939   Target .9750 (will re-adjust later)  Stop .9939

Short USD.CAD

Just shorted USD.CAD @ .9939
Target .9750
Stop 1.0050

Monday 8/8

I am stuck in CL long trade and don't want to get out at these lows. I just had to lower my stop again. This time to 79. I've been trying to catch a falling knife here and its not working too well.

UPDATE 5:25 PM
I finally got stopped out during after hours @ 78.90 for a loss of -7.82. That's in addition to the loss of -2.19 on the first position that I got stopped out from last week. So that's a total loss of -10.01 on this CL long position. What a horrible trade. I broke all my rules this time. I wish I had not re-entered a losing position, and shouldn't have kept lowering the stop.

Crude in freefall

Its 11:28 PM Thursday night and CL is in free fall in London session. I had my stop at 83.71 but looking at the longer daily charts, I see that there is support around 82.50~83.50 levels from Dec lows. I am going to give it some room for wiggle and lower the stop to 82. CL has been down more -17% in the last 9 trading days without any pullbacks. I normally don't like to lower my stop, but I would hate to get stopped out and then see the market shoot up and miss the bounce.


3:00 AM UPDATE
What a crazy Friday. CL went down as low as 82.78 before bouncing up sharply. Its at 86 right now. I have re-drawn Fib lines from last week's peak to today's low and came up with 89.66 (61% fib) as next big resistance. I am going to close out this position around that level.

Stopped out of CL, going back in

Got stopped out of CL this morning @ 89.52 for a loss of -2.19.

Just went long again @ 86.72

There is so much much panic in the market. We must be close to a bottom.

If my trades on the chart look like catching a falling knife, well it is. But I got a strong gut feeling on this one.

8/3 Long CL

Long CL @ 91.71
Target 93.5 ~ 95
Stop 89.50 (bellow 6/27 low)

Crude has been down 8 days in the row and off by 9%. Markets don't go down in a straight line. We are due for a relief rally. My target area is 93.5~95. First major resistance is in the 93.50 range.

Tuesday 8/2

Just went long AUD.USD @ 1.0805
Target 1.0845
stop 1.0785

AUD.USD is sitting on a major hourly support line. If we were going to get  a bounce, it would happen at this level. I put stop 20 pips bellow the support line. I am keeping exit/stop tight on this trade because this is a counter trend trade and I don't want to be left holding a position against a major down trend if it gets extended.



UPDATE 1:20 PM
Just got stopped out of AUD.USD trade @ 1.07847 for  20 pips loss.

Monday 8/1/2011 - ISM

I've been standing on the side-line watching the market's wild swings today. ISM data came out at 50.9, a huge miss of 54.9 estimates. Crude oil has had the most violent swings out of all risk trades. It has gone from high of 98.50 made during pre-open session today in London to low of 93.50 just an hour ago. That's a $5 swing!

Anyways, I am not going to trade today. Standing on the sideline is the best strategy right now.