Friday 7/29 - CL

CL target hit at 95.15 for a 1.80 profit.

I did pretty good this week. I am done for the day.

Friday 7/29

Just closed out the AUD.USD short @ 1.0933 for 70 pips profit.
I could have waited another 30 pips for it to hit my target, but it looked like it was finding support around 25-35 area. AUD is a strong currency and can bounce back real fast, so I wanted to lock in some profits.

Still holding CL short. Will probably carry it over the weekend.





Open trades:
CL   Short 96.95   Target 95.15 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 98.50

Thursday Night 7/28

I just shorted CL @ 96.95 during early London session.
Target 95.15 (will re-adjust later)
Stop 98.50


CL broke out of its uptrend channel 2 days ago and its been looking weak ever since. It ran up to the uptrend channel and that acted as resistance.

I chickened out of my last short position because there was a lot of strength in derivative products like RB and HO, but those guys are finally breaking down and looking weak on the hourly charts. So, I think the time is finally right to short this baby. I hope I don't chicken out of this trade, because I left a lot of money on the table by closing out early 2 days ago. I missed the big drop, but there is still a lot of meat left on the bone.

CL has the potential go back and test the low 90s, but for now, I am leaving target at 95.15






Open trades:
AUD.USD  Short 1.10040     Stop 1.11500    Target 1.0900
CL   Short 96.95   Target 95.15 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 98.50

Thursday 7/28

Just shorted AUD/USD @ 1.10040
Stop 1.11500
Target 1.0900

There is a double top on the hourly and AUD/USD has been going up in a vertical line since 7/18. Its up more than 500 pips without any serious pullbacks. I think we are due for a small sell off to 1.0880 (61% fib since 7/18 leg up).

Exited CL Trade at pre-open

Just closed the CL short position @ 99.11 for a profit of .48

RB is hitting new high and I am worried it will drag CL up with it. Will side step the market and see how the situation develops.

Tuesday 7/26

Short CL @ 99.59
Target 95.25
Stop 101.50



Just shorted CL and its more of a gut feeling trade. The daily chart is bearish, while the hourly chart has a bullish setup. CL broke above the hourly wedge, but then fell back in again. I have a feeling a lot of bulls are going to get suckered into buying right now on a false breakout. I have set exit to 95.25 for now, but will re-adjust it later.


Exited BAY 34 AUG Call @ 1.30 for .14 profit.
I entered that trade last week for an after-hours earning announcement pop, which never happened. Since then, I've been looking for an exit opportunity to close out with break-even or profit and got a chance today.




Open trades:
CL   Short 99.59   Target 95.25 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 101.5

Closed CL long

Just exited CL @ 99.22 for .57 profit.

I didn't like how it broke bellow support back into the wedge after it had already broken out. It also closed bellow 99.30. I am going to side-step CL to see what it does in the next couple of days. Will get back in depending on how it goes.


I still have the EBAY calls, though I wished i had exited at break-even today. EBAY did really badly all the way into the close and managed to put in a very ugly bearish doji on the daily charts.



Open trades:
EBAY 34 AUG CALL @ 1.16

Thursday 7/21

CL broke out of hourly wedge as expected, but it just fell back into the wedge bellow 99.30, which is a very bad sign. This means buying weak and we might have had a fake break-out. CL needs to close about 99.35. I am watching this closely. Might need to close out the trade today before the close.

I am also looking at selling the EBAY CALL for a small profit. I got in that position yesterday expecting a pop after earnings announcement, but that never happened. I have set the exit to 1.5. Lets see if we can get there again before the close.




Open trades:
EBAY 34 AUG CALL @ 1.16
CL   Long 98.65   Target 102-105 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 95.75

Long CL during London session

Just went long CL @ 98.65
Target 102+ (will adjust later)
Stop 95.75





Looks like we are setting up for a risk rally here. I like CL because it has been hugging the daily downtrend channel line for a few days now, and it looks like its going to break it. It’s also looking good on the hourly charts. We are getting HH and HL on hourly, and we are inside a wedge and that looks like it wants to break to the upside. I don’t have a target in mind, but 102 is the next big resistance if we break out, so that’s the area I’d be looking to take profit.




Open trades:
EBAY 34 AUG CALL @ 1.16
CL   Long 98.65   Target 102-105 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 95.75

EBAY earnings day

Just bought a small amounts of EBAY 34 AUG CALLS @ 1.16

This is more of a gut feeling trade than anything else, so I am betting small.

Earnings will be announced after the close today, and I am betting we'll get a nice rally like GOOG and APPL after they announced their earnings last week.



UPDATE (after hours):
Earnings came out at .48 per share, beating analysts expectations, but there is no pop in the stock like we saw  in GOOG and APPL. As matter a fact, EBAY is down -.60 right now. Good thing I placed a small bet.

Friday 7/15

Closed the CL short @ 97.50 for a .15 profit.

Yesterday, I lowered my stop to near break-even to prevent the position from going into a loss in case the market rallied. Bernanke's QE3 hint at congress was putting buying pressure on all commodities.

Its really hard closing a $4 profit position at $0.15, but that's how trading works. Sometimes I have to remind myself that the market is the only casino in the world where one can cancel their bets near the end of race and still get their money back. As long as the market is there, I'll always have a chance to get back in and make more profits. Making .15 profit is not bad. No one has ever gone broke from making a profit.

Now that all my positions are closed, I can relax over the weekend and re-analyze the market from a none-biased perspective. The biggest event of this week wasn't the NFP numbers, but was Bernanke's hint at the congressional hearing that he is open to another round of QE. He is now backtracking a bit, but I think he was honest at the hearing. Its just a matter of time before we get QE3, which means another round of rally for risk assets, commodities, equities, etc.

Thursday 7/14

Just closed out SPY JUL 134 PUTS @ 3.00 for 1.52 profit.

Still holding AUG CL short from 97.65, its currently at 95.50 and chopping around. This contract expires next week, and we have already passed the rollover date, so I need to close this out soon. I am hoping we'll see 93.50 before tomorrow's close. I am looking to close the position and lock profits on any dips the market gives me. 




Open trades:
CL   Short 97.65   Target 90.50   Stop 102.50

NFP day

Shorted CL @ 97.65
Target @ 90.50 ( will re-adjust later)
Stop @  102.50

I  shorted CL as soon I heard the NFP jobs number came at 18k. No one expected the number to be this bad. I jumped in the CL short position quick. I'll adjust target and stop later.




Open trades:
SPY 134 JUL PUT @ 1.48 
CL   Short 97.65   Target 90.50   Stop 102.50

EUR/USD target hit

That was pip perfect exit on the EUR/USD trade. My exit was hit at 5:35 AM @ 1.4225

The trade closed with 265 pips profit.





It was close though. The market went through my exit by anther 5 pip, reached the 23.6% fib level, and then bounced back by 150 pips. Had I missed my exit, I would have been sitting here mad. But thankfully, the trade closed with a profit.






As for the SPY PUT trade, it's still open and sitting at a loss right now. ES is up sharply this morning. I am going wait for the first pull back to unload these PUTS. They are close in the money, so it shouldn't be a big deal. I am pretty sure I can get out at break-even. ES has gone up by 8% in an almost a straight line in the last 2 weeks without a break. We are bound to get a pull-back.






Open trades:
SPY 134 JUL PUT @ 1.48

It was a choppy Tuesday

Yesterday the market was choppy, but most risk assets are finally starting to turn right now in London session. ES has been the most stubborn of the bunch, staying strong even after a none-stop 5% rally last week. I'll be keeping close eye on ES to see how it behaves and will make a decision on what I want to do with my SPY PUTS.

One of the challenges in trading in different assets with different levels of volatility is to mentally readjust to each instrument's expected volatility once the position has been opened. For example, yesterday morning I was getting really frustrated watching EUR/USD chop around by 10-20 pips all day. I was thinking to myself, if I had a CL position right now, I would have had a 200 tick move in 10 min, but I am sitting here watching EUR move like a turtle. But that's really the key to trading multiple instruments. EUR/USD doesn't move as fast, but it trends better, so it makes for a better swing trade than CL. 

For now, I just need to have some patience, sit back and wait for my targets to get hit.






Open trades:
EUR/USD   Short 1.4490   Target 1.4224   Stop 1.4625
SPY 134 JUL PUT @ 1.48

Bought SPY puts

Just picked up some July 134 SPY PUTS @ 1.48 (delta -.52)


I want to open the up short position before the holiday. I think the market will tank next week. First target pull back to 130.85 (61% fib), next one at 129.06 (38% fib). We'll see how it goes.

Open trades:
EUR/USD   Short 1.4490   Target 1.4224   Stop 1.4625
SPY 134 JUL PUT @ 1.48

Short EUR/USD

Just shorted EUR/USD @ 1.4490
Target 1.4225
Stop 1.4625


With the end of the quarter behind us, we should start to see some selling. Most risk assets have been rallying continuously for the past 2 weeks and look over-extended on the hourly charts. CL is already looking weak, ES probably has another day before it gets exhausted, and EUR/USD is heading down now. 

I expect the sell off to begin after 4th of July holiday on Tuesday when the market opens again, but wanted to get my position in on Friday because EUR/USD is already looking weak on the hourly charts and I won’t be around later today to do a trade near the close.