Friday 10/21 Exp day

My SPY puts are going to expire worthless today. I don't really care about this one particular trade because it was a small position. But what I find most frustrating is how hard it is to make money on short trade these days. Most of my losses this year have all been on the short side of the risk. I figured with QE behind us, we would go back to a normal trading environment, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

I think part of the problem is that there is massive cash sitting on the side lines waiting to be invested in something and that creates upward pressure on risky asset. And the cash isn't just coming from traditional investors, but normal corporations who are all sitting on massive pile of cash. Apple inc, for example, has a cash balance of $73 billion dollars. In a normal economic environment, Apple would use that cash to build factories to expand their business. But that's not happening. The reason for this is that it is simply not profitable for companies to invest in added capacity and productivity these days.

Thursday 10/13

Just bought bunch of 121 Oct SPY puts around 2.20 (Vol 31%/Delta -.55). Looking for a 2-3% pull back on ES/SPY in the next few days.

10/12

Got stopped out of the AUD.USD short @ 1.0151.

Monday 10/10

Doubling AUD.USD short position @ .9913
Which brings my average short price to about .9850

For now, I am keeping original stop/exit .10026/.9400




Open trades:
AUD.USD   Short .9850   Target .9400 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 1.0026




3:30 AM PST UPDATE
The market is showing some strength during London session, but I am still strongly bearish. I think once NY opens, the move will be faded. I just went back and looked at charts and see a few big resistance lines around my stop at 1.0026 levels and a big one at 1.0050ish. To keep it safe, I am going to move up stop to 1.0150. I don't want to get stopped out of a good trade.

 

Open trades:
 AUD.USD   Short .9850   Target .9400 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 1.0150

Shorting AUD.USD again 10/7

Just shorted AUD.USD @ .9783
Stop 1.0026
Exit .9400 (will re-adjust later)

AUD.USD has been rallying since setting a low at .9390 last week. It’s now trading around .9800 levels. There are a lot of resistance levels from here up to parity at 1.0000. I am looking for the carry trade unwinding to resume again at these levels.

Closed AUD.USD Short

Exited AUD.USD short @.9595 for 285 pips profit

Now I'll sidestep the market and see if .9535 support from 2010 will hold. If it does, we might get a small rally back to .9800 levels before resuming downward trend again. 

Short AUD.USD

Short AUD.USD @ .9880
Stop 1.01
Exit .9550 (will re-adjust later)

Shorting because it reached 38% fib retrace from 1.0390 peak in mid Sept

TGIS

Thank God It's September!  (TGIS)

August was a brutal month and I am glad it's finally over.

The choppy volatile trading was difficult and frustrating to trade. I kept getting whipsawed.
I was getting stopped out of good trades, and taking big losses on the bad trades. Also, my Crude losses did a lot of damage to my account, but that was my own fault for not following my own trading and money management rules.

I should make a note to myself to stay out of the markets in August. Actually, better yet, I should come up with a trading rule to know when to side-step the markets. I think one the key skills to master in trading is knowing when not to trade. It seems paradoxical, but it's true. I have heard this mentioned by a few other well known traders too. So I need to work on this.

For now, I'll enter September with a fresh perspective and leave all my previous biases behind.

Closed out AUD.USD short

Closed out the AUD.USD short @ 1.0552 for a loss of -102 pips.

Monday 8/22 (late night update)

I am still short AUD.USD from 1.0450 and have been watching the pair chop around by 50 pips on both sides for the past week. One negative development for the trade has been, while risk has sold off considerably, AUD.USD has held firm. This might be a sign of underlying strength relative to other risks.

We have also formed a very big wedge on the hourly and it could break either way. Last week I was thinking about doubling up the size of the trade, but considering that August has been a bad month for me, I prefer to trade small the rest of the month. So I'll stay put for now. I'll be watching the pair closely to see what side of the wedge it breaks out from. If it breaks to the upside, I might wait for first pull back and close out position.



Open trades:
AUD.USD   Short 1.0450   Target .9950 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 1.0650

Thursday 8/18

Shorting AUD.USD again @ 1.0450
Target .9950
Stop 1.0650

I got stopped out of AUD.USD yesterday, but the market is finally turning around. I am jumping back in with half the size of the yesterday's position. Once the market gets really moving, I might add more.

Wed 8/17

Got stopped out of the AUD.USD short position @ 1.0550 for a loss of -120 pips.

Tuesday 8/16/2011 - Short AUD.USD

Just shorted AUD.USD @ 1.0430
Target .9950
Stop 1.0550








Risk has been rallying since the markets finally bottomed on 8/9. Most instruments have reached the 50% fib of the recent leg down. Market needs to go back to the lows to re-test it before rallying further, and that’s what I am expecting.

I was contemplating between shorting CL, ES or AUD.USD, and finally settled down with AUD.USD, because CL has burned me too many times recently and managing stops with it is too stressful. I am getting tired of playing CL with $3-4 dollar stops and still getting burned. I didn’t want to play ES, because it moves too slowly. AUD.USD provides a compromise between the two, it’s not as crazy as CL but it makes faster moves than ES, so I am going with AUD.USD.

I’ll readjust target if it becomes necessary, but will not move stop up. I need to start being more disciplined with my stops.

Wednesday 8/10

Lowered target on USD.CAD from .9750 to .9710. Next support line is around .9630, but I don't think it can get there today. I'll be happy to close out the trade today with profit and leave some money on the table, instead of risking the lost of profit. I'll check back again in a few hours when NY opens and will re-adjust if necessary.


Open trades:
USD.CAD   Short .9939   Target .9710  Stop .9939



UPDATE 9:00 AM
How frustrating. I just got stopped out of the USD.CAD trade @ .9939 for break-even.

8/9 Tuesday Night

USD.CAD update:

The position is working out well. As expected, risk assets are starting to stabilize and USD.CAD position is well into profit. It actually got 18 pips away from my .9750 target earlier today, but then it quickly bounced off of 38% fib level. I set my original exit to .9750 because .9740 was the 8/5 low, so I figured we would at least drop to that level. But now I am thinking USD.CAD might make another run for the 38% fib level support and break it this time. There is no support bellow that until the .9630 areas. So it might be smarter for me to either exit right now or lower exit to next support to capture maximum possible profit. I am going to see how the dollar behaves half way through the London session before I make a decision. For now, I'll leave things as is, but I have lowered my stop to break-even.




Open trades:
USD.CAD   Short .9939   Target .9750 (will re-adjust later)  Stop .9939

Short USD.CAD

Just shorted USD.CAD @ .9939
Target .9750
Stop 1.0050

Monday 8/8

I am stuck in CL long trade and don't want to get out at these lows. I just had to lower my stop again. This time to 79. I've been trying to catch a falling knife here and its not working too well.

UPDATE 5:25 PM
I finally got stopped out during after hours @ 78.90 for a loss of -7.82. That's in addition to the loss of -2.19 on the first position that I got stopped out from last week. So that's a total loss of -10.01 on this CL long position. What a horrible trade. I broke all my rules this time. I wish I had not re-entered a losing position, and shouldn't have kept lowering the stop.

Crude in freefall

Its 11:28 PM Thursday night and CL is in free fall in London session. I had my stop at 83.71 but looking at the longer daily charts, I see that there is support around 82.50~83.50 levels from Dec lows. I am going to give it some room for wiggle and lower the stop to 82. CL has been down more -17% in the last 9 trading days without any pullbacks. I normally don't like to lower my stop, but I would hate to get stopped out and then see the market shoot up and miss the bounce.


3:00 AM UPDATE
What a crazy Friday. CL went down as low as 82.78 before bouncing up sharply. Its at 86 right now. I have re-drawn Fib lines from last week's peak to today's low and came up with 89.66 (61% fib) as next big resistance. I am going to close out this position around that level.

Stopped out of CL, going back in

Got stopped out of CL this morning @ 89.52 for a loss of -2.19.

Just went long again @ 86.72

There is so much much panic in the market. We must be close to a bottom.

If my trades on the chart look like catching a falling knife, well it is. But I got a strong gut feeling on this one.

8/3 Long CL

Long CL @ 91.71
Target 93.5 ~ 95
Stop 89.50 (bellow 6/27 low)

Crude has been down 8 days in the row and off by 9%. Markets don't go down in a straight line. We are due for a relief rally. My target area is 93.5~95. First major resistance is in the 93.50 range.

Tuesday 8/2

Just went long AUD.USD @ 1.0805
Target 1.0845
stop 1.0785

AUD.USD is sitting on a major hourly support line. If we were going to get  a bounce, it would happen at this level. I put stop 20 pips bellow the support line. I am keeping exit/stop tight on this trade because this is a counter trend trade and I don't want to be left holding a position against a major down trend if it gets extended.



UPDATE 1:20 PM
Just got stopped out of AUD.USD trade @ 1.07847 for  20 pips loss.

Monday 8/1/2011 - ISM

I've been standing on the side-line watching the market's wild swings today. ISM data came out at 50.9, a huge miss of 54.9 estimates. Crude oil has had the most violent swings out of all risk trades. It has gone from high of 98.50 made during pre-open session today in London to low of 93.50 just an hour ago. That's a $5 swing!

Anyways, I am not going to trade today. Standing on the sideline is the best strategy right now.

Friday 7/29 - CL

CL target hit at 95.15 for a 1.80 profit.

I did pretty good this week. I am done for the day.

Friday 7/29

Just closed out the AUD.USD short @ 1.0933 for 70 pips profit.
I could have waited another 30 pips for it to hit my target, but it looked like it was finding support around 25-35 area. AUD is a strong currency and can bounce back real fast, so I wanted to lock in some profits.

Still holding CL short. Will probably carry it over the weekend.





Open trades:
CL   Short 96.95   Target 95.15 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 98.50

Thursday Night 7/28

I just shorted CL @ 96.95 during early London session.
Target 95.15 (will re-adjust later)
Stop 98.50


CL broke out of its uptrend channel 2 days ago and its been looking weak ever since. It ran up to the uptrend channel and that acted as resistance.

I chickened out of my last short position because there was a lot of strength in derivative products like RB and HO, but those guys are finally breaking down and looking weak on the hourly charts. So, I think the time is finally right to short this baby. I hope I don't chicken out of this trade, because I left a lot of money on the table by closing out early 2 days ago. I missed the big drop, but there is still a lot of meat left on the bone.

CL has the potential go back and test the low 90s, but for now, I am leaving target at 95.15






Open trades:
AUD.USD  Short 1.10040     Stop 1.11500    Target 1.0900
CL   Short 96.95   Target 95.15 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 98.50

Thursday 7/28

Just shorted AUD/USD @ 1.10040
Stop 1.11500
Target 1.0900

There is a double top on the hourly and AUD/USD has been going up in a vertical line since 7/18. Its up more than 500 pips without any serious pullbacks. I think we are due for a small sell off to 1.0880 (61% fib since 7/18 leg up).

Exited CL Trade at pre-open

Just closed the CL short position @ 99.11 for a profit of .48

RB is hitting new high and I am worried it will drag CL up with it. Will side step the market and see how the situation develops.

Tuesday 7/26

Short CL @ 99.59
Target 95.25
Stop 101.50



Just shorted CL and its more of a gut feeling trade. The daily chart is bearish, while the hourly chart has a bullish setup. CL broke above the hourly wedge, but then fell back in again. I have a feeling a lot of bulls are going to get suckered into buying right now on a false breakout. I have set exit to 95.25 for now, but will re-adjust it later.


Exited BAY 34 AUG Call @ 1.30 for .14 profit.
I entered that trade last week for an after-hours earning announcement pop, which never happened. Since then, I've been looking for an exit opportunity to close out with break-even or profit and got a chance today.




Open trades:
CL   Short 99.59   Target 95.25 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 101.5

Closed CL long

Just exited CL @ 99.22 for .57 profit.

I didn't like how it broke bellow support back into the wedge after it had already broken out. It also closed bellow 99.30. I am going to side-step CL to see what it does in the next couple of days. Will get back in depending on how it goes.


I still have the EBAY calls, though I wished i had exited at break-even today. EBAY did really badly all the way into the close and managed to put in a very ugly bearish doji on the daily charts.



Open trades:
EBAY 34 AUG CALL @ 1.16

Thursday 7/21

CL broke out of hourly wedge as expected, but it just fell back into the wedge bellow 99.30, which is a very bad sign. This means buying weak and we might have had a fake break-out. CL needs to close about 99.35. I am watching this closely. Might need to close out the trade today before the close.

I am also looking at selling the EBAY CALL for a small profit. I got in that position yesterday expecting a pop after earnings announcement, but that never happened. I have set the exit to 1.5. Lets see if we can get there again before the close.




Open trades:
EBAY 34 AUG CALL @ 1.16
CL   Long 98.65   Target 102-105 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 95.75

Long CL during London session

Just went long CL @ 98.65
Target 102+ (will adjust later)
Stop 95.75





Looks like we are setting up for a risk rally here. I like CL because it has been hugging the daily downtrend channel line for a few days now, and it looks like its going to break it. It’s also looking good on the hourly charts. We are getting HH and HL on hourly, and we are inside a wedge and that looks like it wants to break to the upside. I don’t have a target in mind, but 102 is the next big resistance if we break out, so that’s the area I’d be looking to take profit.




Open trades:
EBAY 34 AUG CALL @ 1.16
CL   Long 98.65   Target 102-105 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 95.75

EBAY earnings day

Just bought a small amounts of EBAY 34 AUG CALLS @ 1.16

This is more of a gut feeling trade than anything else, so I am betting small.

Earnings will be announced after the close today, and I am betting we'll get a nice rally like GOOG and APPL after they announced their earnings last week.



UPDATE (after hours):
Earnings came out at .48 per share, beating analysts expectations, but there is no pop in the stock like we saw  in GOOG and APPL. As matter a fact, EBAY is down -.60 right now. Good thing I placed a small bet.

Friday 7/15

Closed the CL short @ 97.50 for a .15 profit.

Yesterday, I lowered my stop to near break-even to prevent the position from going into a loss in case the market rallied. Bernanke's QE3 hint at congress was putting buying pressure on all commodities.

Its really hard closing a $4 profit position at $0.15, but that's how trading works. Sometimes I have to remind myself that the market is the only casino in the world where one can cancel their bets near the end of race and still get their money back. As long as the market is there, I'll always have a chance to get back in and make more profits. Making .15 profit is not bad. No one has ever gone broke from making a profit.

Now that all my positions are closed, I can relax over the weekend and re-analyze the market from a none-biased perspective. The biggest event of this week wasn't the NFP numbers, but was Bernanke's hint at the congressional hearing that he is open to another round of QE. He is now backtracking a bit, but I think he was honest at the hearing. Its just a matter of time before we get QE3, which means another round of rally for risk assets, commodities, equities, etc.

Thursday 7/14

Just closed out SPY JUL 134 PUTS @ 3.00 for 1.52 profit.

Still holding AUG CL short from 97.65, its currently at 95.50 and chopping around. This contract expires next week, and we have already passed the rollover date, so I need to close this out soon. I am hoping we'll see 93.50 before tomorrow's close. I am looking to close the position and lock profits on any dips the market gives me. 




Open trades:
CL   Short 97.65   Target 90.50   Stop 102.50

NFP day

Shorted CL @ 97.65
Target @ 90.50 ( will re-adjust later)
Stop @  102.50

I  shorted CL as soon I heard the NFP jobs number came at 18k. No one expected the number to be this bad. I jumped in the CL short position quick. I'll adjust target and stop later.




Open trades:
SPY 134 JUL PUT @ 1.48 
CL   Short 97.65   Target 90.50   Stop 102.50

EUR/USD target hit

That was pip perfect exit on the EUR/USD trade. My exit was hit at 5:35 AM @ 1.4225

The trade closed with 265 pips profit.





It was close though. The market went through my exit by anther 5 pip, reached the 23.6% fib level, and then bounced back by 150 pips. Had I missed my exit, I would have been sitting here mad. But thankfully, the trade closed with a profit.






As for the SPY PUT trade, it's still open and sitting at a loss right now. ES is up sharply this morning. I am going wait for the first pull back to unload these PUTS. They are close in the money, so it shouldn't be a big deal. I am pretty sure I can get out at break-even. ES has gone up by 8% in an almost a straight line in the last 2 weeks without a break. We are bound to get a pull-back.






Open trades:
SPY 134 JUL PUT @ 1.48

It was a choppy Tuesday

Yesterday the market was choppy, but most risk assets are finally starting to turn right now in London session. ES has been the most stubborn of the bunch, staying strong even after a none-stop 5% rally last week. I'll be keeping close eye on ES to see how it behaves and will make a decision on what I want to do with my SPY PUTS.

One of the challenges in trading in different assets with different levels of volatility is to mentally readjust to each instrument's expected volatility once the position has been opened. For example, yesterday morning I was getting really frustrated watching EUR/USD chop around by 10-20 pips all day. I was thinking to myself, if I had a CL position right now, I would have had a 200 tick move in 10 min, but I am sitting here watching EUR move like a turtle. But that's really the key to trading multiple instruments. EUR/USD doesn't move as fast, but it trends better, so it makes for a better swing trade than CL. 

For now, I just need to have some patience, sit back and wait for my targets to get hit.






Open trades:
EUR/USD   Short 1.4490   Target 1.4224   Stop 1.4625
SPY 134 JUL PUT @ 1.48

Bought SPY puts

Just picked up some July 134 SPY PUTS @ 1.48 (delta -.52)


I want to open the up short position before the holiday. I think the market will tank next week. First target pull back to 130.85 (61% fib), next one at 129.06 (38% fib). We'll see how it goes.

Open trades:
EUR/USD   Short 1.4490   Target 1.4224   Stop 1.4625
SPY 134 JUL PUT @ 1.48

Short EUR/USD

Just shorted EUR/USD @ 1.4490
Target 1.4225
Stop 1.4625


With the end of the quarter behind us, we should start to see some selling. Most risk assets have been rallying continuously for the past 2 weeks and look over-extended on the hourly charts. CL is already looking weak, ES probably has another day before it gets exhausted, and EUR/USD is heading down now. 

I expect the sell off to begin after 4th of July holiday on Tuesday when the market opens again, but wanted to get my position in on Friday because EUR/USD is already looking weak on the hourly charts and I won’t be around later today to do a trade near the close.

Stopped out CL again

Got stopped out of CL long at 90.17 this morning. 

Crude took a nose dive today because the Obama administration announced that it will release 60 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves. I am not sure how they could justify doing this since there is national no emergency going on. I guess its election time. This is basically the crude oil version of the Fed's QE. Its very difficult to trade the markets these days with so much government interventions.

Stopped out of CL long

I got stopped out of long CL position @ 91.79 earlier tonight, in pre-market trading. I normally don't like to get back in the same position that lost money, but CL is volatile, so $2 movement is nothing. We are still within channel. I am still expecting a 3-5 day rally across all risk asset, so going back in.

Just went long again @ 92.17
Target 97.17 (will re-adjust later)
Stop -2 @ 90.17

Friday 6/17

Long CL @ 93.79
Target  97.79 (will re-adjust later)
Stop 91.79








I have been sitting on the sideline for a week now. I missed the chance to short and didn't want to chase the market down, so the safest thing to do was to sit on the sidelines and watch. My main strategy right now is to sell the rallies, until, or unless rumors of QE3 start floating around. At the same time, it's not a good idea to just play one side of the market, or develop strong long term biases while doing short term trading. So I will take long positions if risk/reward ratio warrants it, but will use tight stops.



I think this is a good time to take a short-term long position. Most of the markets like ES, CL, EUR, etc, look oversold on the short-term charts, and have reached support levels on the daily charts. I think we might get a 3-5 day relief rally at any time now.

EUR/USD

Watching EUR/USD on hourly for break down. It would be nice if it rallied first to put a double top before breaking down. But it may not. Its a bit late in the day for a break down though. Big fx moves usually start during London session.

Closed out ES short

Closed ES short @ 1284.25 for net profit of 26 handles

Didn't want to wait for the original target of 1274. Looks like the market is finding a short term bottom here and I am happy with 1284. This market is choppy. The key is to trade short swings and collect small profits here and there. Will now go back to the sidelines and look for another trade opportunity.

Tuesday 6/7

The selling is losing steam, but I don't want to close the position yet. I think we'll continue to get choppy action with overall direction being down.

I have moved stop on the open ES short position to slightly bellow break even at 1309.











The most interesting thing is that both the Dollar and ES have been going down together lately. This is the first time this has happened since the crash of 2009. Does this mean that risk trade is decoupling from the Dollar? Maybe QE is ending? Hard to tell. But the market dynamics are clearly changing.

Thursday night - Short ES

I just shorted ES @ 1310.25
Target 1274 (will adjust later)
Stop 1326


Logic for entering trade:

1) The market's quick snap back yesterday put a bullish hammer on the charts, but I am not too impressed by it. Bullish hammers are only meaningful when they show up at the bottom of a massive sell off and are accompanied by large volume. Yesterday's action doesn't match that criteria.
2) We have LH and LLs on the daily charts. This means the trend is still down.
3) ES broke the uptrend support line at 1310 yesterday, but it's now hugging it in after hours. When the market breaks a support line and then snaps back above it, but fails to clear it decisively, and then hugs it for a sometime, its a sign that support is about to break.



I have set target to 1274, but I don't really have a good idea for a good exit at the moment. There is no immediate support bellow 1310. The next big support is way bellow at 1240. I am attaching a long-term SPX chart to show how I calculate big support lines (SPX charts are better than ES at showing long-term trends). Next big support is near 1228-1240 levels, which is where the 61% fib, the previous major uptrend line and 200 day SMA intersect. But I don't expect a big wash off sell to that level. I am still expecting choppy action for a while. This is a good market for quick in and out trading, so I am keeping tight exit/stops.

Exited CL trade

Target hit on CL trade. Exited @ 98.50 for 1.65 profit. 

That was tick perfect. It went as lows at 98.48 and then bounced back up.

Crude

Just shorted CL @ 100.15
Target 98.50
Stop 101.75

I am expecting the sell off from yesterday to continue.There is support at 98.50 and bellow that at 95.

Fading EUR/USD rally

EUR/USD has rallied on the Greek bailout news, but it has also reached resistance level at 1.14430

Just shorted EUR/USD @ 1.4400
Stop 1.4455
Target  1.4320






UPDATE (11:35 AM PDT):
EUR/USD currently @ 1.4384 and its been going side ways all morning. This is not the kind of action I was expecting. Moving stop bellow break even to 1.4398.

I want to abort the trade if the market rallies.



UPDATE (13:10 PM PDT):
I didn't want to carry this trade after close.
Closed out short @ 1.4392 for 10 pips profit.
Will go back to sidelines and wait for a better trading opportunity.

Stopped out of EUR/USD

Got stopped out of EUR/USD trade for a loss of -115 pips

Market went up to 1.4210, took out my stop, and then dropped by 120 pips. WTF???

Now that I think about it, that was a bad place to put a stop. I need to get in a habit of picking good stops based on support/resistance levels instead of putting arbitrary stop/exits at round numbers like 1.4200. The next big resistance was at 1.4239, so a stop above that would have been better.




Night UPDATE (10:30 PM PDT):

It looks like it was a good thing that I got stopped out this morning, because EUR/USD has broken out of the hourly down trend line and has now rallied above the 1.4239. Next big resistance is at 1.4340 which is the 38% fib retracement from the top made in early May.

Dollar is back on the defensive again, with risk carry trade back on. I am still in sell the rallies modes, but thinking about stepping back a little bit and letting this market settle down from the recent big sell-off. Many of the markets look oversold on the short term charts, so they are susceptible to sharp bounces.

Early Morning EUR/USD Trade

Just shorted EUR/USD @ 1.4085
Stop @ 1.4200
Target @ 1.3700 (will adjust later)

Now I can go to sleep :)

EUR/USD

Planning on shorting EUR/USD on any rally we get tonight. Hoping to get a short in around 1.4100 area. Currently at 1.4036.

Dollar

Nice inverted head and shoulders on the DX. Technically, the Dollar is ready for a big rally. The only thing it needs is a spark to set it off, and that spark is going to come from the EURO zone. Another Euro debt panic is brewing at the moment. S&P just downgraded Italy. I am watching the situation in Spain closely.

If the Dollar rallies, it will be bad news for all risk trades (ES/EUR/CL). We might see a massive unwind like we did in CL at beginning of the month. I am still not sure which instrument would be the best to play this off. I think CL has dropped too much in May to provide good shorting opportunity. I've been burned shorting ES too many times in the past. I think EUR/USD is probably the best shorting bet.

Sunday Night - Crude

CL has broken out of the descending triangle but it still looks weak. I doubt this is the bottom. The problem is that we went down too far, too fast at the beginning of May. The big crash flushed out too many long positions, so selling pressure has been relieved.





On the other hand, Brent/WTI spread is still high, signaling bullish pressure on Brent.









The bullish season for CL usually ends in May and the market goes side-ways until it rolls over and turns bearish around September. We are either going further down, or will consolidate for a few weeks. I’ll definitely be selling the rallies.