Friday 10/21 Exp day

My SPY puts are going to expire worthless today. I don't really care about this one particular trade because it was a small position. But what I find most frustrating is how hard it is to make money on short trade these days. Most of my losses this year have all been on the short side of the risk. I figured with QE behind us, we would go back to a normal trading environment, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

I think part of the problem is that there is massive cash sitting on the side lines waiting to be invested in something and that creates upward pressure on risky asset. And the cash isn't just coming from traditional investors, but normal corporations who are all sitting on massive pile of cash. Apple inc, for example, has a cash balance of $73 billion dollars. In a normal economic environment, Apple would use that cash to build factories to expand their business. But that's not happening. The reason for this is that it is simply not profitable for companies to invest in added capacity and productivity these days.

Thursday 10/13

Just bought bunch of 121 Oct SPY puts around 2.20 (Vol 31%/Delta -.55). Looking for a 2-3% pull back on ES/SPY in the next few days.

10/12

Got stopped out of the AUD.USD short @ 1.0151.

Monday 10/10

Doubling AUD.USD short position @ .9913
Which brings my average short price to about .9850

For now, I am keeping original stop/exit .10026/.9400




Open trades:
AUD.USD   Short .9850   Target .9400 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 1.0026




3:30 AM PST UPDATE
The market is showing some strength during London session, but I am still strongly bearish. I think once NY opens, the move will be faded. I just went back and looked at charts and see a few big resistance lines around my stop at 1.0026 levels and a big one at 1.0050ish. To keep it safe, I am going to move up stop to 1.0150. I don't want to get stopped out of a good trade.

 

Open trades:
 AUD.USD   Short .9850   Target .9400 (will re-adjust later)  Stop 1.0150

Shorting AUD.USD again 10/7

Just shorted AUD.USD @ .9783
Stop 1.0026
Exit .9400 (will re-adjust later)

AUD.USD has been rallying since setting a low at .9390 last week. It’s now trading around .9800 levels. There are a lot of resistance levels from here up to parity at 1.0000. I am looking for the carry trade unwinding to resume again at these levels.

Closed AUD.USD Short

Exited AUD.USD short @.9595 for 285 pips profit

Now I'll sidestep the market and see if .9535 support from 2010 will hold. If it does, we might get a small rally back to .9800 levels before resuming downward trend again.